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| US Inflation Cools in November 2025, But Data Reliability Questioned Amid Government Shutdown |
U.S. consumer prices rose 2.7% year-over-year in November 2025, marking a slowdown in US inflation November 2025 and falling short of economists’ 3.1% forecast. The dip offers a modest reprieve amid ongoing affordability concerns for American households.
However, the report’s reliability is heavily compromised. A 43-day federal government shutdown delayed data collection, leaving October’s price data entirely missing. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish monthly CPI changes—the first such omission in history.
To fill the gap, the BLS used a “carry-forward” method, assuming prices remained unchanged in October. Economists warn this introduced a significant downward bias, making inflation appear weaker than it likely was during the two-month period.
Essential goods continued to surge in cost despite the muted headline figure. Beef prices jumped 15.8% annually, ground beef rose 14.9%, coffee climbed 18.8%, and electricity costs increased by 6.9%—pressuring family budgets even as egg and gas prices offered slight relief.
The White House hailed the report as “astonishingly good,” aligning with President Trump’s recent messaging on affordability. Yet analysts caution that tariff-driven price hikes—especially on imported goods—are still unfolding, with retailers having passed through only about 40% of duties by September.
Labor market data released alongside showed initial jobless claims fell to 224,000, suggesting resilience. However, continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, signaling prolonged unemployment spells and softening hiring activity.
Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—rose just 2.6% year-over-year, the smallest gain since March 2021. But economists suspect the shelter component, which makes up over 40% of core CPI, was artificially subdued due to data adjustments.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has urged skepticism toward recent economic data affected by the shutdown. While the Fed cut rates again in December, officials signaled a pause ahead as they await clearer inflation and labor trends.
Ultimately, US inflation November 2025 presents a distorted snapshot—reflecting statistical gaps more than genuine economic relief—and underscores the fragility of data during government disruptions.
